This Bitcoin Outlook from Delphi Digital is jam packed with on-chain data, market cycle forecasts, a breakdown of key trading trends, market analysis, and several indicators the team is tracking heading into year-end. The analysis includes:
- Proprietary UTXO analysis is starting to mirror past cycles with significant implications for BTC. The recent peak in long-term holders has historically preceded major bitcoin bull runs.
- Institutional investors have not only turned net long since September but also the magnitude of their net exposure, measured in BTC, has increased relative to prior periods as well.
- Key short-term risks include extreme readings on the Fear & Greed Index, US dollar reversal, higher real rates, and a tightening liquidity environment that could cause a sell-off in risk asset and a spike in market volatility.